Unicom all the news recently to its market also constantly development prospects add many imagine space: the industry rumours unicom brewing institutional reform, part of the province the following the vertical management; A source said, China unicom (the Po) published this week by 5 billion yuan RMB super of short-term financing bonds, the period 180 days; And China unicom announced last week in a sudden, will be in unicom business hall and online mall to sell the original price simulates version of the iPhone 4 S, quickly caused many "pink" attention.
There are institutions bold prediction, in 2012 years of 3 G unicom user development growth will reach 200%, unconventional can continue in the rapid development of China unicom situation? Work of telecom research institute researchers DingDaoQin letter to reservations about this prediction, and told reporters in some big operators to competition for the iPhone, the iPhone amplification of domestic telecommunication market competition pattern of the impact, specific effect remains to be seen; And China telecom (the Po) group guangzhou institute researchers HanHaiChao also told reporters, 2012 unicom to increased 200% year-on-year to huge difficulty, to the prediction questioned the data, also said the telecom version of the iPhone 4 S listed or a significant impact on the market of China unicom.
IPhone "made" a significant impact on
The Shanghai securities news pointed out, cause the from all walks of life of hot debate telecom version of the iPhone 4 S, once to unicom version of the iPhone 4 S formed a powerful impact. But, after the Chinese Spring Festival, the impact seems to be reduced. The industry says the telecom version of the iPhone 4 S rolled out, the effect is limited to unicom, but also have the media says with iPhone will be made to affect China unicom.
At present, China unicom is China's third big operators, with about 15 million high-end customers, China telecom is the second major operators, high-end users basic and close to the. Therefore, to users of the iPhone by high-end strong attraction, the two big operators of direct battle will be inevitable.
For this problem, HanHaiChao said, in this year is expected to telecom 2-3 months push the iPhone 4 S, there are research data shows, if telecom and unicom together push iPhone 4 S words, 38% of the users are willing to buy telecom, 17% are willing to buy unicom. At present, in the 3 G users in China unicom the mobile user for the permeability of 20%, and in the telecom accounted for 30%. Visible, 3 G users permeability aspects of telecom obvious dominant, so to 3 G iPhone user influence or will play a bigger role, and in telecommunications iPhone 4 S launch opportunity is exactly the original iPhone users many unicom packages expire, visible effect will not small. If have forecast before single unicom push it, that can pull different nets users of about 3.5 million or so, if telecom and unicom push it, that can pull different nets user opportunity of about 10 million or so, but the specific development remains to be seen.
As for the media take out Morgan Stanley report said, "iPhone5 is expected in the third quarter of this year, iPhone5 using qualcomm launched launched TDD-LTE and FDD-LTE dual mode chip", and we concluded that the "China mobile (the Po) cast in the dragon to join iPhone5 war is not impossible". For this news, HanHaiChao objections, on the one hand, consider technology maturity to commercial time window problem; On the other hand, combining the strengths of the negotiation compromise problems, therefore, is expected to move in this year is unlikely to join the battle, mobile barrage of out this co-operation news can be associated with stable customer, strives for the active market behavior.
"Year-on-year growth of 200% forecast" not by the spectrum
From January 2009 domestic release since the 3 G licences, the first two years of development time 3 G users reached 47 million or so, and a full year 2011 is added 80.46 million subscribers, when growth of more than 200%. Among them with 2011 in unicom 3 G development scores the most gratifying.
Oriental securities research report published think, one thousand yuan in unicom smart phone drive, the 2012 is expected to unicom new 3 G is expected to reach 50 million subscribers, up nearly 200% growth. The Great Wall securities institute points out, China unicom in high investment and 3 G brand establishment of the later period, 3 G users scale growth will bring growth performance of high elasticity. In 2011, the net users into incremental business income 25 million for $23 billion, is expected to net 2012 3 G users will reach 40 million-45 million, and 35 billion yuan-bring incremental revenue of 40 billion yuan, can fully digest depreciation and the rising cost of its earnings reversal.
For the development of capital market is consistent JiaoHaoSheng of China unicom, HanHaiChao points out, the relevant agency forecast data on the high side, although in unicom inevitable will remain 2011 years of growth, but to "close to 200% year-on-year growth" estimate says remains to be seen, because brokers also have expected this year, 3 G users intention leading scale in 2012 of telecommunications subscribers in the new 3 G will be around 30 million households, more than 2011 years of 24 million increased by 25%. The development of the two relatively than data to see, the forecast in the telecom is relatively by spectrum, because two operators around the development each have disadvantages general situation differences are not too obvious, so people don't think of this year year-on-year growth can realize China unicom nearly 200% this prediction.
DingDaoQin does the same for institutions in good prediction of 200% increase than unicom reservations about, he says this year unicom development is inevitable, but to achieve 200% year-on-year growth too difficult, although in unicom "got up early," in the terminal market rob the advantage of high-end advantage prominent, but with the iPhone 4 S in telecom into the market, the comprehensive network, terminal, the advantages of the charges will be on the unicom produce certain impact. Because some securities institutions and the analysis of the development of the industry practice remains to be further closely, so to such expectations should be a rational view.
Turn to the stock market competition
Recently, unicom action again and again: in this year is expected to finish before the end of march for informatization part adjust; And for the adjustment of the provincial level network company will end before the end of April; Integration broadband application center, product innovation support center involves the unit of all products, merged to product support center, strengthen the integration product support and promote IT support by function mainly to provide data mainly services.
Visible, operators of development strategy is adjusted, in addition to adjust the structure of business, also intensify the department structure. For this year's development situation, HanHaiChao points out, unicom charges in 2011 by larger combo threshold, estimated this year by the space is limited, rely mainly on price subsidies; Mobile BuTieE improve this year, and adjust the subsidies structure, raise ZhongDiDuan machine subsidies strength; Relative motion, unicom consideration not only increase user subsidies, will also consider channel side subsidies strength. From the end of the series early move look, unicom has begun to shorten and distributors of settlement cycle, improved settlement ratio. Must come to see, 3 G market this year, and the user scale is the same fundamental key, terminal and the channel is still the most important with the power of devices, including the iPhone, the new electronic channel competition advance, etc. In addition, use of industry customers pull 3 G development also was again to the very important point of view, use 3 G product development industry customers, high quality industry customers to improve user quality, supplement each other.
The data shows, the domestic 3 G users totaled 128 million set-top, 3 G permeability already super 13%, on the 3 G market share in the distribution, accounting for of the China mobile, China unicom and China telecom all accounts for about 3 into, into an open three-horse race. In this background, China unicom will break in difficulty not small, development is still difficult is optimistic blindly.
To this, HanHaiChao added: "this year 3 G market everyone's goal is: the user scale, and stable user scale; in this context, the terminal, the channel is still the most important send force. From the three means of strategic goals look, in terminals, iPhone is undoubtedly this year's key factors; channels, this year everybody wants to send force, especially new electronic channel electronic channel. Large user strategy, all under the also pay attention to the stock and user quality, mobile need not say, the biggest stock market this year, unicom user loss also specially established customers sustain department or team."
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